Saturday, October 29, 2005

Gaming it out

Best case scenario: Libby flips. Fitz charges Rove. Fitz charges Cheney. Fitz names Bush as unindicted co-conspirator.

Worst case scenario: Libby pleades guilty to all charges, refuses to talk about anything. Fitz throws the book at him. Libby receives presidential pardon. Fitz goes home, Libby goes home, everybody else goes on with business as usual.

If I had to bet, I'd put my money on the worst case. Precisely because a trial would be so toxic to the Administration, I think they will try to keep it from happening. (The normal way a trial is avoided -- a plea bargain -- would happen here only if Libby flips, and the White House doesn't want that, either.) The only way I see for them to pre-empt a trial is to ask Smithers to take the fall and promise him there will be mattresses there to soften the blow. And don't forget, it is exactly how Daddy skated on Iran-Contra.

If it goes down that way, it will be the Architect's greatest masterpiece. And cause for rejection of the beatification of St. Patrick Fitzgerald.

Update: RedHedd @ Firedoglake differs, but a bunch of commenters to this post agree with me. And to build on what someone there pointed out, nobody in Congress who voted for this clusterfuck of a war is going to be too keen on focusing the country on what a cockup the whole thing was. Too much blood on too many hands.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

I am inclined to go with the best case scenario, for a few reasons.

One: There are no friends on the Dark Side. And these folks are pretty damn dark.

Two: Treason is punishable by death in time of war.
Fitz listed treason but charged Libby with lesser offenses. How come? Because treason is the trump card. If he doesn't get what he wants, he ups the charge to treason. And Fitz and these WH folks would know if an agent died. Which could explain why all the judges allowed Judy to be jailed. Which brings us to-

Three: A charge of Treason means no chance of a Presidential Pardon.
So if you, Libby, keep quiet, you could die. And if you keep quiet for too long, someone else could sing and your chance to make a deal is toast. Unless of course you think you can trust your pals? (See item One). And if I were Libby, I would have been wondering all this weekend why Rove wasn't charged. Nothing quite like bad news on a Friday.

From what I have read, this "Who do you Trust?" approach has characterized the majority of the cases Fitzgerald has prosecuted.
It will take a while but I think he will have Cheney by the first of the year.

10:01 AM  

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