Monday, January 02, 2006

Could they really be that deluded?

The US and Iran: Is Washington Planning a Military Strike? - SPIEGEL ONLINE

It's hardly news that US President George Bush refuses to rule out possible military action against Iran if Tehran continues to pursue its controversial nuclear ambitions. But in Germany, speculation is mounting that Washington is preparing to carry out air strikes against suspected Iranian nuclear sites perhaps even as soon as early 2006.

German diplomats began speaking of the prospect two years ago -- long before the Bush administration decided to give the European Union more time to convince Iran to abandon its ambitions, or at the very least put its civilian nuclear program under international controls. But the growing likelihood of the military option is back in the headlines in Germany thanks to a slew of stories that have run in the national media here over the holidays.
The article in Der Spiegel goes well beyond idle speculation, and is worth a close reading. The circumstantial evidence they bring together is deeply troubling.

As I discussed here months ago, even if it has no nukes, Iran is a far more difficult opponent than was/is Iraq. If we try to attack Iran, we are completely and utterly fucked: the Iranians have Russian-made anti-ship missiles that make Exocets look like spitballs. Our entire naval presence in the Persian Gulf could be sunk within minutes after we launched an attack on suspected nuke sites in Iran. The only way an attack against Iran does not end in an unambiguous and immediate military disaster for us is if we launch an all-out nuclear strike that kills most of the 68 million people in the country and renders a major oil producer uninhabitable for hundreds of years -- a prospect that Commander Codpiece may relish, but I harbor a small hope that our military will refuse to carry it out. If Bush tries to take us down that road, a military coup might well be our best option.


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