Tuesday, February 05, 2008

deep thoughts

If Obama wins the nomination, I am convinced he will be elected President. If Hillary wins the nomination, I am afraid the poisonous anti-Clinton atmosphere will bring about the unthinkable: yet another Republican disaster of a President.

McCain will be 72 in January 2009. (Reagan was 69 when he took office in 1981.) I think a marathon campaign against Obama would make him look tired and as relevant as a day-old newspaper. But Clinton is (and seems) closer to McCain in age and vigor, so that will not be the same asset for her as it will be for Obama.

Obama v. McCain looks like a blowout to me. Clinton v. McCain should be the same, but it won't be. I think the wingers will largely stay home on Election day if Obama is the Dem. But their hatred of all things Clinton will help McCain close ranks with them. And an interesting play would be for him to pick Huckabee as his running mate. The classic move is to tack toward the center once you have the nomination. But the Rove play book runs the other direction. Huckabee won't pacify the pundit class, but he will deliver all those fundie voters Bush relied on.

That approach is going to scare some people even more given McCain's age. But it might just be a winning strategy if Clinton is the Dem nominee.

This video brings home to me the incredible power and poetry of Obama's words. Oratory alone is of course a slender reed. But I see no safe harbors, no other chance, however slim, to undo our nightmare. And so, knowing there is a very real chance that I will be sorely disappointed, and that he, too will fall short, I choose to believe.

Update: esoder writes that he heard "some bald guy"on CNN saying the same thing. I'm guessing said bald dude was Ari Fleisher. (I now avoid CNN -- I find them even more objectionable than Fox, because the only difference between them at this point is that Fox no longer pretends to be something other than a right-wing noise machine.)

Updater: See?

Updaterer: See?


Blogger Eric Soderstrom said...

A bald guy on CNN just said, essentially the same thing. I agree as well. Notice how the Right Wing Echo chamber fell silent on Hillary a while back - they would MUCH rather run against her than Obama. And the people with money - the King (and Queen) makers would much rather have Hillary in the White House than Obama if it has to be a Democrat.

If she wins the Democratic nomination, the attacks will be swifter than swift boating and incredibly brutal - Whitewater, Vince Foster, every old BC scandal, and I'm sure a dozen or so new ones.

I like that Democrats are attending the polls in much greater numbers than Republicans.

I like what Obama said tonight about looking forward rather than backwards - because really, the Bill Clinton years weren't all that great...they only look good sandwiched between a couple of Bushes.

I have to say...no I can't...Oh I am...I am starting to feel...is it hope again?

Nice to see you at the keyboard tonight, sir.

10:42 PM  
Blogger Eric Soderstrom said...

Ari I would recognize. It was one of the five or so experts they had behind desks and laptops all night. Didn't catch his name.

And holy crap - Ann Coulter is finally right about something.

This is gonna be a fun one.

1:56 AM  

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