Why it won't work
Because it is simply too late to make going negative effective.
The fundamental requirement for a negative campaign to work is that you have to define your opponent before he or she does it. Obama has already effectively defined himself -- the first debate really sealed that deal. You don't get a second chance to make a first impression and all that.
The McCainiacs have to be kicking themselves -- they thought that the "success" of the surge would turn their biggest liability into a decisive plus. In fact, all the surge has done is demote the Iraq issue. People have already made up their minds that McCain's worst issue is the one that is most important to them. Had they seen it coming, they would likely have run a very different campaign. But their inability to see things coming is what the election is really about, isn't it?
Unless bin Laden gives McCain a helluva present in the form of an October Surprise, I don't see how anything McCain can do now will erase this lead.
The fundamental requirement for a negative campaign to work is that you have to define your opponent before he or she does it. Obama has already effectively defined himself -- the first debate really sealed that deal. You don't get a second chance to make a first impression and all that.
The McCainiacs have to be kicking themselves -- they thought that the "success" of the surge would turn their biggest liability into a decisive plus. In fact, all the surge has done is demote the Iraq issue. People have already made up their minds that McCain's worst issue is the one that is most important to them. Had they seen it coming, they would likely have run a very different campaign. But their inability to see things coming is what the election is really about, isn't it?
Unless bin Laden gives McCain a helluva present in the form of an October Surprise, I don't see how anything McCain can do now will erase this lead.
posted by bluememe at 10/06/2008
4 Comments:
I love how you sound in this post - matter of fact without optimism or concern. You've changed a lot in the last 4 years Mr. Blue Meme!
It is much easier this year to be blase' about the whole thing -- without being so presumptuous as to take credit, it is clear that enough people now get the stuff I have been blathering about since roughly this point in the 2004 cycle. Enough people, that is, to finally start to undo this 8-year trainwreck.
And the optimism is there, guarded by a phalanx of Secret Service suits to protect it from all the threats that still keep it awake at night -- fraud and theft and racism and stupidity and and.
I don't think I have changed so much; it looks to me like I have been standing still but the world has finally turned a bit to a less ignorant place. If there is a change, it is that I no longer feel as motivated to joust at wingnuts; they no longer seem as consequential.
If the Republicans steal this one, you'll see a sharp uptick in vitriol (at least until I can book passage to the safe house).
Oh -- and thanks for making the journey with me, man. Even TA seems to have finally given up.
If you think she's bad now, take a look at the REAL Sarah Palin - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b51zWRBUS2U
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